Some experts say we are not that far from creating a truly intelligent machine. Some experts say it may not be possible to achieve this goal before the end of this century. However, a recent survey of AI researchers found that most of them expect humans to create Strong AI sometime in the next two decades. However, it could take another 10 or 20 years for the hardware to catch up to the theory. In the meantime, we can expect the AI of tomorrow to be more intelligent than we are now.
One of the biggest challenges to creating true AI is the complexity of the task. For example, the sample complexity for human level locomotion is much higher than for text understanding. Unless computers learn how to use those techniques, they are unlikely to be able to analyze the causes of many negative effects of human behavior. Some jobs are too complex to automate, and we will probably have to wait for a while before we see that goal.
If human-level AGI is ever developed, it will be different from animal-level intelligence. Although some animals are capable of incredible mental feats, humans contribute to the bio-mass of the world by far. Thus, even the best machine that can process current data will not be able to cure cancer or other diseases. It will need to run experiments to find out what works and what doesn’t. If we are able to create such an artificial intelligence, it could transform the world.
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